unpredictability and, 25, 32, 34, 37, 60, 89, 118, 226n
war games and, 107–11, 114, 120, 230n
water cure and, 90–94, 229n
of weather, 61, 96–104, 109, 125, 150–51, 182, 202, 204–5, 209, 211, 215, 229n–30n
premortems, 34, 135, 143, 207, 215
predictions and, 118–19, 121–22, 140
Pride and Prejudice (Brontë), 195
Priestley, Joseph, 10, 12, 14–15, 127
problems, problem solving, 4, 14–15, 17, 68, 71, 144, 146, 174, 214
complex decisions and, 26, 28, 41
computers and, 166, 169–70, 172
deliberation and, 31
diversity and, 153
Eliot’s choice and, 197
happiness and, 128
and Johnson’s move to California, 185
and maps and models, 48–49
Meadow Lake and, 47
predictions and, 84, 86, 88, 114, 156
risk and, 137
scenario planning and, 114, 142
and science of brain, 79–80
in Tale of the Fire Commander, 58–59
products, production, 23, 63, 70, 80
deliberation and, 15–17
and maps and models, 42
minimally viable, 141
war games and, 111
RAND Corporation, 107, 110
randomized controlled trials (RCTs), 92–95, 101–4, 109, 144, 215
rationality, 14, 62
bounded, 24, 28–29, 65, 129, 142, 144, 169
choice and, 23–25, 129
Reagan, Ronald, 129, 131
recognition-primed decision-making, 57
red-teaming, 120–22, 126, 142, 145
Regan, Helen, 60
regulatory impact analysis, 129–33
Revolutionary War, 35–43, 146
and maps and models, 42–43, 60–61, 68
Washington and, 37–43, 59–61, 68, 110
Richardson, Lewis Fry, 99–100, 150–51, 204
risks, 12, 28, 46, 65, 172
autonomous vehicles and, 136–40
bin Laden and, 74, 124, 140–41, 145
existential decisions and, 160–61
magnitude of, 136–41, 160–61
Pearl Harbor attack and, 228n
regulatory impact analysis and, 131
Royal Charter, Royal Charter Storm, 95–97
Royal Dutch Shell, 112
scenario planning, 34, 142–43, 169, 202
bin Laden and, 116–17, 119, 123–26, 146
and education on decision-making, 215
and Johnson’s move to California, 207
predictions and, 112–26, 140
premortems for, 118–19, 121–22
red-teaming and, 120–21
Schelling, Thomas, 106–7, 109, 114
Schwartz, Peter, 112–14
science fiction, 86–87, 150, 158
AI and, 165, 169–70, 172
scientists, science, 7–9, 12–15, 27, 34, 44, 95, 143, 170, 183, 187, 206, 209
of brain, 77–80, 82, 94, 213–14, 216
complex decisions and, 32–33
crime investigation study and, 56
deliberation and, 31
Dorothea’s choice and, 194
and education on decision-making, 215–16
existential decisions and, 159
global decision-making and, 163
groups and, 53, 55
personal decision-making and, 186
predictions and, 93–99, 229n
uncertainty and, 62
water cure and, 90
SEALs, 18, 105–6, 116, 120–21, 124–25, 146
Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), 157, 159–60, 175
Seligman, Martin, 81
Seven Tomorrows (Schwartz et al.), 113–14
70% rule, 65
Seville, 6
Shelburne, Earl of, 10
Simon, Herbert, 23–24, 28–29, 32, 129, 140
simulations, 53, 127, 171, 186, 202–3, 206, 209–11, 215
bin Laden and, 105–6, 116, 120–21, 124
climate change and, 151, 172
computers and, 100, 150–51, 170, 172, 175
ensemble, 34, 101, 103, 175, 216
predictions and, 100, 102–10, 116, 119–23, 209
war games and, 107–10
Smith, Dave, 111–12
Smith and Hawken, 112–13
Sommers, Samuel, 53–54
Sources of Power (Klein), 56–59
space, space travel:
alien intelligence and, 157–59, 173–74
predictions and, 86–88
Stasser, Garold, 52
Sternfeld, Joel, 70, 72
storytelling, 111, 169, 203–5, 210–11, 216
scenario planning and, 115–16, 118
see also novels
“Streptomycin treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis” (Hill et al.), 92–93, 103-4
Sunstein, Cass, 51, 131
Superintelligence (Bostrom), 165–66
System 1, 13–14, 24, 28, 143, 167
System 2, 13, 167
Tale of the Fire Commander and the Basement Fire, 56–59
Taylor, Thomas, 95–96
terrorists, terrorism, 19–20
bin Laden and, 63–64, 105, 121, 124, 145–46
on 9/11, 19, 72–73, 120
Tetlock, Philip, 82–86, 89, 102, 114, 205
Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman), 13
threadlike pressures, 30–31, 34, 42, 182, 188, 191, 201–2, 209–10, 234n
Titus, William, 52
Tolstoy, Leo, 32–34
Tooby, John, 203–5
travel speeds, 87–88, 95
Trump, Donald, 152–53, 156
Tversky, Amos, 13–14
United Kingdom, 10, 29–30, 195–99, 228n
Eliot’s choice and, 196–99, 206
garden tools and, 111–12
predictions and, 90–94, 96–99, 229n
Revolutionary War and, 35–43, 60, 68, 110
Royal Charter Storm and, 95–97
United Nations, 161
urban parks, 5–7, 101, 136
Collect Pond and, 3, 5–6, 46
High Line and, 70–73
in Seville, 6
utilitarianism, 128–29, 139, 213, 231n
Vakoch, Douglas, 157
values, 4, 48–51, 91, 113, 186
alien intelligence and, 174
computers and, 166
diversity and, 53, 153
Dorothea’s choice and, 193
and education on decision-making, 215
happiness and, 128
and maps and models, 44, 48–49
predictions and, 83, 119
of property, 26–27, 45, 49
regulatory impact analysis and, 131
and science of brain, 79
uncertainty and, 61
see also linear value modeling
Vancouver, 48–49, 52–53, 55, 60
variables, 29, 37, 132, 141, 154, 175
bin Laden and, 21, 25, 65, 125–26
certainty and, 60–61, 227n
complex decisions and, 15, 24–27, 32, 34, 41
Dorothea’s choice and, 190–91
and maps and models, 44, 49, 61, 66, 75, 142–43
personal decision-making and, 182, 186
predictions and, 89, 101, 104, 126
risk and, 13
7, 140
scenario planning and, 126, 142
Victims of Groupthink (Janis), 227n–28n
Vietnam War, 149
village idiots, 164–65
voting, 12–13, 16, 23, 26, 30–31, 72, 152, 162, 181, 193, 233n–34n
Wack, Pierre, 112, 114–16
Wallace, Alfred Russel, 180
War and Peace (Tolstoy), 32–34
war games, 34, 149, 186, 202
collaborative nature of, 109–10
predictions and, 107–11, 114, 120, 230n
Washington, George:
failed decision of, 38–41, 60–61
and maps and models, 43, 68
Revolutionary War and, 37–43, 59–61, 66, 68, 110
and variations of uncertainty, 60–61
water cure, 90–94, 150, 177–78, 229n
weapons of mass destruction (WMD), 21, 62–63, 120, 144, 146
weather forecasting, 61, 96–104, 125, 150–51, 182, 204–5, 209, 229n–30n
ensemble, 100–101, 103–4, 109, 150, 202, 204, 211, 215
Weather Prediction by Numerical Process (Richardson), 99, 150, 204
Wells, H. G., 86, 169
Westfahl, Gary, 86–87
“Where To?” (Heinlein), 87
whether or not decisions, 15, 67–68, 70, 185
Wilson, James, 90–91, 94
Yudkowsky, Eliezer, 164–65
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About the Author
Steven Johnson is the bestselling author of ten books, including Wonderland, How We Got to Now, Where Good Ideas Come From, The Invention of Air, The Ghost Map, and Everything Bad Is Good for You. The founder of a variety of influential websites, he is the host and co-creator of the PBS and BBC series How We Got to Now. Johnson lives in Marin County, California, and Brooklyn, New York, with his wife and three sons.
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