and maps and models, 29, 31, 49–51
predictions and, 12, 29, 31, 118, 225n
risk and, 137, 139–40
Denning, Kathryn, 160
Dickens, Charles, 4, 90, 187, 233n
diversity, 23, 66, 68, 119, 143, 215
groups and, 28, 50–54, 61, 152–53, 161
and maps and models, 44, 49, 51
Vancouver and, 49, 52–53
Drake, Frank, 158, 172–74
Duer, William, 2
Dunning-Kruger effect, 56
economics, 23, 25, 31, 33, 43, 134, 150, 159, 172, 184
Collect Pond and, 45–46
in decision-making, 7, 13, 15, 26–27
Dorothea’s choice and, 188, 190–94, 199
predictions and, 82–85, 88
regulatory impact analysis and, 130, 132–33
education, 184, 201, 213–16
brain and, 206, 214–15
on decision-making, 13, 214–16
predictions and, 115–16
Einstein, Albert, 164–65, 171
Eliot, George (Mary Ann Evans), 29–31, 34–35, 77, 123, 187–203, 208–10, 231n, 233n
choice of, 195–201, 205–6
diary of, 177–78
Lewes’s relationship with, 90, 196–99, 201, 205–6
morality and, 206, 208–9
and what novels teach, 209–10
see also Middlemarch
emotions, 9, 15, 27, 165, 231n
brain and, 13, 80, 206, 210–11
Dorothea’s choice and, 188, 191, 194, 199–200
Eliot’s choice and, 196, 199, 205–6
happiness and, 128–29
LVM and, 135
predictions and, 122
Revolutionary War and, 43
empathy, 207–9, 214
environment, 13, 38, 55, 152, 227n
computers and, 150, 166, 170
destruction in, 154–55
garden tools and, 111, 113
groups and, 52
and Johnson’s move to California, 183, 207
and maps and models, 44, 48–49
Meadow Lake and, 46–47
predictions and, 26, 84, 113–14
regulatory impact analysis and, 131
Revolutionary War and, 36
in Tale of the Fire Commander, 57
Vancouver and, 48, 60
Victorian medicine and, 92
see also climate change
environmental impact analysis, 7, 44, 55
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 46–47, 131–32
epistemological decisions, 20–21
eschatological decisions, 168
ethics, 15, 37, 215, 226n
Europe, 23, 82, 113, 161, 213
Evans, Mary Ann, see Eliot, George
evolution, 12, 82, 91, 98, 164, 173–75, 179–81, 203, 210–11
Ex Machina, 166, 169
expectations, 57, 109
Dorothea’s choice and, 192, 201
predictions and, 106, 116
Expert Political Judgment (Tetlock), 83
experts, 13, 52–55, 91, 95, 131, 143, 155, 162, 172
and maps and models, 119, 122
predictions and, 82–85, 89
extremism, 72–73
fallacy of extrapolation, 87, 114, 119
false information, time spent on, 203–4
Feuerbach, George, 231n
Feynman, Richard, 62
fingerprints, 32–34, 65, 125–26, 206–7
Fitzgerald, F. Scott, 81
FitzRoy, Robert, 96–98
Fleet Problem XIII, 108–9, 120
fMRI scans, 77–78, 80, 92, 94, 216
Fort Bragg, N.C., 105, 124
France, 3, 49–50, 108, 197
Franklin, Benjamin, 10–12, 127, 133, 135, 186
Franzen, Jonathan, 188
Freshwater Pond, see Collect Pond
Freud, Sigmund, 93–94
Fuller, Buckminster, 110
full spectrum, 24–27, 75, 172, 201, 211
bin Laden and, 74, 125, 144–45
computers and, 151, 175
Dorothea’s choice and, 191, 193–94
and education on decision-making, 215
expert roles and, 55
LVM and, 135
and maps and models, 29, 43–44, 47–49, 52, 153
Middlemarch and, 187–88, 191, 193–94, 210
predictions and, 82, 85, 115
Revolutionary War and, 37
Fundamental Tools, 111–12
Gage, Phineas, 77
Galton, Francis, 98
garden tools, 111–15
Garland, Alex, 166
Gates, Robert, 124, 145
Germany, 107–8, 197
germ theory, 93
Gladwell, Malcolm, 13, 56, 58–59
global warming, see climate change
Google, 86
autonomous vehicles and, 136–37, 139, 142, 161
Greeks, 84–85, 156
Greene, Nathanael, 37–38, 41, 43, 59–61, 68, 110
groups, group decisions, 7, 15–16, 67, 127, 169, 216
bin Laden and, 64, 66, 74–75, 145–46
crime investigation study and, 56
deliberations and, 51, 53–55, 186
diversity and, 28, 50–54, 61, 152–53, 161
and education on decision-making, 215
expert roles in, 54–55
global decision-making and, 161–62
and maps and models, 29, 50–52
phases in, 21–22
predictions and, 29, 56, 83, 104
Vancouver and, 49, 55
vulnerable to failure, 28–29
war games and, 107
groupthink, 24, 28, 228n
Gully, James Manby, 90–91, 94, 178, 229n
gut decisions, gut impressions, 13, 15, 58
Hammond, Robert, 69–70, 72
happiness, 9–10, 23, 127–30, 136, 166, 178
Dorothea’s choice and, 200, 209
and Johnson’s move to California, 207, 216
Hawken, Paul, 111–14
Hawking, Stephen, 158, 164–65, 175
Heath, Dan and Chip, 67–68, 71
Heights of Gowan, 35–36, 39, 68
Heinlein, Robert A., 87
Henry, Joseph, 229n
hidden profiles, 52, 54–56, 74, 215
High Line, 70–73
Hill, Austin Bradford, 92–93, 103–4
housing, 141, 207
Collect Pond and, 4–5, 7, 26, 45–46, 154
predictions and, 115–16
Howe, William, 36, 38–39, 41, 43, 60
Hussein, Saddam, 21, 62, 144
immortality, 159, 161, 163
impact pathways, 104, 163, 180, 202
Collect Pond and, 44, 46, 154
influence diagrams, 44–46
instincts, 15, 33, 65, 81
bin Laden and, 144–45, 147
brain and, 206
housing and, 115–16
mulling and, 143
intelligence, 16–17, 28, 41, 86, 191
alien, 157–60, 163, 171–75, 232n–33n
artificial (AI), 157, 163–72
diversity and, 53, 153
predictions and, 81, 83, 88–89, 123
Internet, 19, 162
Interstate Commerce Commission, 69
intuition, 11, 13–17, 44, 68, 92
crime investigation study and, 56
scenario planning and, 142
in Tale of the Fire Commander, 56, 58
; Iran, U.S. hostages in, 21, 74, 106, 146
Iraq, Iraq War, 59, 63
scenario planning and, 116–17
WMD and, 21, 62–63, 120, 144, 146
Jamaica Pass, 36, 39–41, 46, 68, 110
Jane Eyre (Brontë), 195
Janis, Irving, 227n–28n
Japan, 109, 168, 227n–28n
juries, 15–16, 26, 42, 53–54, 181, 186, 216, 225n
Kahn, Herman, 107
Kahneman, Daniel, 13–14, 50–51
Keats, Jonathon, 108
Kelly, Kevin, 169
Kennedy, John F., 21, 110
Kennedy, Robert, 110
Kimmel, Husband, 228n
Klein, Gary, 118–19
and Tale of the Fire Commander, 56–59
Kubrick, Stanley, 107
Lancet, The, 94–95, 99
leaders, leadership, 16, 58, 72, 141
bin Laden and, 20, 117, 121, 125, 145, 147
climate change and, 156
predictions and, 116, 121
war games and, 110
Lee, Charles, 36–38
Leiter, Mike, 120
L’Enfant, Pierre Charles, 3, 5–6
Lewes, George Henry, 90, 196–99, 201, 205–6
Lind, James, 94
linear value modeling (LVM), 133–37, 143, 202, 232n
Darwin and, 133–35, 141
risk and, 139–40
“Logic Named Joe, A” (Leinster), 86
Long Island, N.Y., 3, 35–36
Revolutionary War and, 36, 38–39, 41, 43, 60
loss aversion, 28, 40
Lost Illusions (Balzac), 188
McDonough, Denis, 64
McRaven, William, 105–6, 121, 124, 140, 145–47
Malvern, 90–91, 178, 229n
Manhattan, N.Y., 1–2, 46, 68–71, 208
Collect Pond and, 2, 4–7, 24, 45, 150, 154
High Line and, 70–71
LVM and, 136
Revolutionary War and, 36, 38–40, 43, 66, 68
maps and models, 42–44, 127, 142–47, 149, 153–54, 171, 202, 206–10, 226n
and bin Laden, 42, 74–75, 105, 125–26, 144–47
and brain, 42–43, 206–8
and certainty, 60–61, 65, 227n
and climate change, 151, 163
in complex decision-making, 66, 71
and computers, 42–43, 151, 163
and deliberation, 29, 31, 49–51
and Dorothea’s choice, 188–89, 193–94
and education on decision-making, 215
and expertise, 119, 122
full–spectrum, 29, 43–44, 47–49, 52, 153
and happiness, 129
and Johnson’s move to California, 185, 207
and Middlemarch, 187–89, 193–94
and predictions, 75, 93, 98–100, 103, 105, 113, 118–19, 122, 125–26
and regulatory impact analysis, 130
and Revolutionary War, 42–43, 60–61, 68
and scenario planning, 113, 118–19
and time spent on false information, 203–4
and Vancouver, 48–49
and war games, 107, 109–10
of whether or not questions, 67
see also linear value modeling
marriage:
Darwin and, 8–11, 15, 25, 29, 31, 71, 90, 104, 133–36, 139, 141, 178–81, 184
Dorothea’s choice and, 186, 188–90, 193, 199, 204, 209
Eliot’s choice and, 196–97, 201
and Johnson’s move to California, 182, 184–86, 207, 216
LVM and, 133–36, 141
Marx, Karl, 180
Mead, Rebecca, 209
Meadow Lake, 46–48, 154–55
Meaning of It All, The (Feynman), 62
medicine, 118
predictions and, 90–95, 99, 101–4
in Victorian era, 90–92, 94, 144, 177–78, 229n
Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence (METI), 157–60, 163, 171
Middlemarch (Eliot), 34–35, 77, 177, 186–96, 199–202, 231n
Casaubon’s will in, 189–90, 199, 201, 204
Dorothea’s choice in, 186, 188–95, 199–201, 204, 209
Eliot’s choice and, 195–96, 201
full spectrum and, 187–88, 191, 193–94, 210
love affairs in, 189–95, 200, 204
Lydgate and, 29–31, 123, 188, 193–94, 201, 233n–34n
and maps and models, 187–89, 193–94
military:
bin Laden and, 18–19, 73–74, 104–6, 116–17, 120–21, 124–25, 140–41, 145–47
complex decisions and, 32–33
deliberation and, 15–17
Pearl Harbor attack and, 109, 227n–28n
predictions and, 104–10, 116–17, 119–20, 124–25, 230n
red-teaming and, 120–21
Revolutionary War and, 35–43, 59–61, 68
war games and, 107–10, 149, 230n
Mill, John Stuart, 129, 136
Milner, Yuri, 157
mind, theory of, 206, 208
minimally viable product idea, 141
models, see also maps and models
Moore’s Law, 163
moral algebra, 11, 127, 135, 186
morality, 31, 33, 136, 155, 202, 234n
Dorothea’s choice and, 199
and education on decision-making, 214–15
Eliot and, 206, 208–9
happiness and, 128–29
risk and, 139
Morson, Gary Saul, 225n–26n
Moses, Robert, 47–48
mulling, 12, 24, 79, 90, 140, 142–44, 180
Musk, Elon, 157, 164
narrativeness, 225n–26n
narrowband, 25–27, 44, 50, 188, 215
predictions and, 85, 102
natural selection, 8, 164, 179–80
Navy, U.S., 108, 149, 227n–28n
SEALs and, 18, 105–6, 116, 120–21, 124–25, 146
Newton, Isaac, 226n
Collect Pond and, 4–7, 48, 133, 164
Johnson’s departure from, 182–86
Meadow Lake and, 46–47
Revolutionary War and, 35–40, 43, 60, 68
urban parks and, 3, 5–6, 46, 70–73
Nietzsche, Friedrich, 180
9/11, 19, 72–73, 120
novels, 32, 187–88, 195, 208–11, 233n
default networks and, 210–11
and education on decision-making, 215–16
realist, 34, 201, 226n
science fiction, 87, 169–70
see also Middlemarch
Nutt, Paul, 66–68, 71
Obama, Barack, 131, 162
bin Laden and, 63–64, 66, 73–75, 105–6, 116–17, 124, 143, 145, 147
predictions and, 105–7, 116–17, 124
scenario planning and, 116–17
objectives, 21, 24, 27, 29, 31, 71, 110, 117, 136, 140, 142–44, 151, 166, 232n
Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), 130–33
Ogilvy, Jay, 113–14
oil, 112, 114, 227n
On the Origin of Species (Darwin), 181
Open Government, 162
opportunities, 31, 43, 60, 81, 85, 117, 122, 162, 182, 192, 211
options, 127, 215, 233n
bin Laden and, 66, 73–74, 105–6, 124, 126, 145, 147, 226n
cataloguing real–world decisions and, 66–68
in decision-making, 14–17, 21–24, 28
High Line and, 70–71
and Johnson’s move to California, 185–86
LVM and,
133–35, 143
predictions and, 105–6, 114, 124, 126
regulatory impact analysis and, 131–32
risk and, 138, 140, 145
scenario planning and, 114, 142–43
Orwell, George, 87
Owen, Robert, 191
Page, Scott E., 53
Pakistan:
bin Laden and, 17–19, 26, 74, 105–6, 116, 118–19, 121, 123–25, 140, 145
predictions and, 105–6, 116, 118, 121, 123–25
Panetta, Leon, 20, 22, 63
Paris climate accord, 151–52, 155–56, 160, 171
Pearl Harbor attack, 109, 227n–28n
PET scans, 77–79, 214, 216
Phillips, Katherine, 55–56
plans, planning, 13, 32, 72, 149, 154, 214
bin Laden and, 19, 62–63, 105–6, 146–47, 226n
climate change and, 167–68
Collect Pond and, 3, 5–6, 26, 45, 133
Dorothea’s choice and, 191, 200
long-term, 165, 168
and maps and models, 48–50, 226n
Meadow Lake and, 47
predictions and, 81, 105–6, 112–26
Revolutionary War and, 39–40
risk and, 138–39, 141
and science of brain, 79–80
and Tale of the Fire Commander, 58
Vancouver and, 49, 60
see also scenario planning
politics, 10, 16, 26–27, 125–30, 152–54, 157, 161, 180
bin Laden and, 125–26
climate change and, 167, 172
diversity and, 152–53
Dorothea’s choice and, 188–89, 191, 193–94, 199–200, 209
Eliot’s choice and, 198–99
happiness and, 128–30
and Johnson’s move to California, 185
and maps and models, 43
predictions and, 82–84, 87, 89, 103, 117
pollution, 47, 150, 154, 170
Collect Pond and, 3, 7
Victorian medicine and, 91, 229n
predictions, 56, 75, 77, 81–127, 129, 133, 142–43, 156, 171, 200, 207
accuracy of, 83, 93, 98, 100–101, 103
certainty and, 23, 60–61, 84–85, 112, 114–16, 140
climate change and, 163, 167, 170
complex decisions and, 24–27, 32, 34
deliberation and, 12, 29, 31, 118, 225n
evolution and, 181
of experts, 82–85, 89
failures in, 87–89, 114, 118, 228n–29n
garden tools and, 112–15, 118
long-term, 81–83, 100, 145, 151
RCTs and, 92–95, 101–4, 109
red-teaming and, 120–22, 145
regulatory impact analysis and, 130, 132
scenario planning and, 112–26, 140
simulations and, 100, 102–10, 116, 119–23, 209
successes in, 84–86, 89, 104, 114–15
superforecasters and, 85–86, 89
Tetlock on, 82–86, 89, 102, 114, 205