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    Capital in the Twenty-First Century

    Page 82
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    The Illusion of Marginal Productivity

      The Takeoff of the Supermanagers: A Powerful Force for Divergence

      10. Inequality of Capital Ownership

      Hyperconcentrated Wealth: Europe and America

      France: An Observatory of Private Wealth

      The Metamorphoses of a Patrimonial Society

      Inequality of Capital in Belle Époque Europe

      The Emergence of the Patrimonial Middle Class

      Inequality of Wealth in America

      The Mechanism of Wealth Divergence: r versus g in History

      Why Is the Return on Capital Greater Than the Growth Rate?

      The Question of Time Preference

      Is There an Equilibrium Distribution?

      The Civil Code and the Illusion of the French Revolution

      Pareto and the Illusion of Stable Inequality

      Why Inequality of Wealth Has Not Returned to the Levels of the Past

      Some Partial Explanations: Time, Taxes, and Growth

      The Twenty-First Century: Even More Inegalitarian Than the Nineteenth?

      11. Merit and Inheritance in the Long Run

      Inheritance Flows over the Long Run

      Fiscal Flow and Economic Flow

      The Three Forces: The Illusion of an End of Inheritance

      Mortality over the Long Run

      Wealth Ages with Population: The μ × m Effect

      Wealth of the Dead, Wealth of the Living

      The Fifties and the Eighties: Age and Fortune in the Belle Époque

      The Rejuvenation of Wealth Owing to War

      How Will Inheritance Flows Evolve in the Twenty-First Century?

      From the Annual Inheritance Flow to the Stock of Inherited Wealth

      Back to Vautrin’s Lecture

      Rastignac’s Dilemma

      The Basic Arithmetic of Rentiers and Managers

      The Classic Patrimonial Society: The World of Balzac and Austen

      Extreme Inequality of Wealth: A Condition of Civilization in a Poor Society?

      Meritocratic Extremism in Wealthy Societies

      The Society of Petits Rentiers

      The Rentier, Enemy of Democracy

      The Return of Inherited Wealth: A European or Global Phenomenon?

      12. Global Inequality of Wealth in the Twenty-First Century

      The Inequality of Returns on Capital

      The Evolution of Global Wealth Rankings

      From Rankings of Billionaires to “Global Wealth Reports”

      Heirs and Entrepreneurs in the Wealth Rankings

      The Moral Hierarchy of Wealth

      The Pure Return on University Endowments

      What Is the Effect of Inflation on Inequality of Returns to Capital?

      The Return on Sovereign Wealth Funds: Capital and Politics

      Will Sovereign Wealth Funds Own the World?

      Will China Own the World?

      International Divergence, Oligarchic Divergence

      Are the Rich Countries Really Poor?

      Part Four: Regulating Capital in the Twenty-First Century

      13. A Social State for the Twenty-First Century

      The Crisis of 2008 and the Return of the State

      The Growth of the Social State in the Twentieth Century

      Modern Redistribution: A Logic of Rights

      Modernizing Rather Than Dismantling the Social State

      Do Educational Institutions Foster Social Mobility?

      The Future of Retirement: Pay-As-You-Go and Low Growth

      The Social State in Poor and Emerging Countries

      14. Rethinking the Progressive Income Tax

      The Question of Progressive Taxation

      The Progressive Tax in the Twentieth Century: An Ephemeral Product of Chaos

      The Progressive Tax in the Third Republic

      Confiscatory Taxation of Excessive Incomes: An American Invention

      The Explosion of Executive Salaries: The Role of Taxation

      Rethinking the Question of the Top Marginal Rate

      15. A Global Tax on Capital

      A Global Tax on Capital: A Useful Utopia

      Democratic and Financial Transparency

      A Simple Solution: Automatic Transmission of Banking Information

      What Is the Purpose of a Tax on Capital?

      A Blueprint for a European Wealth Tax

      Capital Taxation in Historical Perspective

      Alternative Forms of Regulation: Protectionism and Capital Controls

      The Mystery of Chinese Capital Regulation

      The Redistribution of Petroleum Rents

      Redistribution through Immigration

      16. The Question of the Public Debt

      Reducing Public Debt: Tax on Capital, Inflation, and Austerity

      Does Inflation Redistribute Wealth?

      What Do Central Banks Do?

      The Cyprus Crisis: When the Capital Tax and Banking Regulation Come Together

      The Euro: A Stateless Currency for the Twenty-First Century?

      The Question of European Unification

      Government and Capital Accumulation in the Twenty-First Century

      Law and Politics

      Climate Change and Public Capital

      Economic Transparency and Democratic Control of Capital

      Conclusion

      The Central Contradiction of Capitalism: r > g

      For a Political and Historical Economics

      The Interests of the Least Well-Off

      Notes

      Contents in Detail

      List of Tables and Illustrations

      Index

      Tables and Illustrations

      Tables

      Table 1.1. Distribution of world GDP, 2012

      Table 2.1. World growth since the Industrial Revolution

      Table 2.2. The law of cumulated growth

      Table 2.3. Demographic growth since the Industrial Revolution

      Table 2.4. Employment by sector in France and the United States, 1800–2012

      Table 2.5. Per capita output growth since the Industrial Revolution

      Table 3.1. Public wealth and private wealth in France in 2012

      Table 5.1. Growth rates and saving rates in rich countries, 1970–2010

      Table 5.2. Private saving in rich countries, 1970–2010

      Table 5.3. Gross and net saving in rich countries, 1970–2010

      Table 5.4. Private and public saving in rich countries, 1970–2010

      Table 7.1. Inequality of labor income across time and space

      Table 7.2. Inequality of capital ownership across time and space

      Table 7.3. Inequality of total income (labor and capital) across time and space

      Table 10.1. The composition of Parisian portfolios, 1872–1912

      Table 11.1. The age-wealth profile in France, 1820–2010

      Table 12.1. The growth rate of top global wealth, 1987–2013

      Table 12.2. The return on the capital endowments of US universities, 1980–2010

      Illustrations

      Figure I.1. Income inequality in the United States, 1910–2010

      Figure I.2. The capital/income ratio in Europe, 1870–2010

      Figure 1.1. The distribution of world output, 1700–2012

      Figure 1.2. The distribution of world population, 1700–2012

      Figure 1.3. Global inequality 1700–2012: divergence then convergence?

      Figure 1.4. Exchange rate and purchasing power parity: euro/dollar

      Figure 1.5. Exchange rate and purchasing power parity: euro/yuan

      Figure 2.1. The growth of world population, 1700–2012

      Figure 2.2. The growth rate of world population from Antiquity to 2100

      Figure 2.3. The growth rate of per capita output since the Industrial Revolution

      Figure 2.4. The growth rate of world per capita output from Antiquity to 2100

      Figure 2.5. The growth rate of world output from Antiquity to 2100

      Figure 2.6. Inflation since the Industrial Revolution

      Figure 3.1. Capital in Britain, 1700–2010

      Figu
    re 3.2. Capital in France, 1700–2010

      Figure 3.3. Public wealth in Britain, 1700–2010

      Figure 3.4. Public wealth in France, 1700–2010

      Figure 3.5. Private and public capital in Britain, 1700–2010

      Figure 3.6. Private and public capital in France, 1700–2010

      Figure 4.1. Capital in Germany, 1870–2010

      Figure 4.2. Public wealth in Germany, 1870–2010

      Figure 4.3. Private and public capital in Germany, 1870–2010

      Figure 4.4. Private and public capital in Europe, 1870–2010

      Figure 4.5. National capital in Europe, 1870–2010

      Figure 4.6. Capital in the United States, 1770–2010

      Figure 4.7. Public wealth in the United States, 1770–2010

      Figure 4.8. Private and public capital in the United States, 1770–2010

      Figure 4.9. Capital in Canada, 1860–2010

      Figure 4.10. Capital and slavery in the United States

      Figure 4.11. Capital around 1770–1810: Old and New World

      Figure 5.1. Private and public capital: Europe and America, 1870–2010

      Figure 5.2. National capital in Europe and America, 1870–2010

      Figure 5.3. Private capital in rich countries, 1970–2010

      Figure 5.4. Private capital measured in years of disposable income

      Figure 5.5. Private and public capital in rich countries, 1970–2010

      Figure 5.6. Market value and book value of corporations

      Figure 5.7. National capital in rich countries, 1970–2010

      Figure 5.8. The world capital/income ratio, 1870–2100

      Figure 6.1. The capital-labor split in Britain, 1770–2010

      Figure 6.2. The capital-labor split in France, 1820–2010

      Figure 6.3. The pure rate of return on capital in Britain, 1770–2010

      Figure 6.4. The pure rate of return on capital in France, 1820–2010

      Figure 6.5. The capital share in rich countries, 1975–2010

      Figure 6.6. The profit share in the value added of corporations in France, 1900–2010

      Figure 6.7. The share of housing rent in national income in France, 1900–2010

      Figure 6.8. The capital share in national income in France, 1900–2010

      Figure 8.1. Income inequality in France, 1910–2010

      Figure 8.2. The fall of rentiers in France, 1910–2010

      Figure 8.3. The composition of top incomes in France in 1932

      Figure 8.4. The composition of top incomes in France in 2005

      Figure 8.5. Income inequality in the United States, 1910–2010

      Figure 8.6. Decomposition of the top decile, United States, 1910–2010

      Figure 8.7. High incomes and high wages in the United States, 1910–2010

      Figure 8.8. The transformation of the top 1 percent in the United States

      Figure 8.9. The composition of top incomes in the United States in 1929

      Figure 8.10. The composition of top incomes in the United States, 2007

      Figure 9.1. Minimum wage in France and the United States, 1950–2013

      Figure 9.2. Income inequality in Anglo-Saxon countries, 1910–2010

      Figure 9.3. Income inequality in Continental Europe and Japan, 1910–2010

      Figure 9.4. Income inequality in Northern and Southern Europe, 1910–2010

      Figure 9.5. The top decile income share in Anglo-Saxon countries, 1910–2010

      Figure 9.6. The top decile income share in Continental Europe and Japan, 1910–2010

      Figure 9.7. The top decile income share in Europe and the United States, 1900–2010

      Figure 9.8. Income inequality in Europe versus the United States, 1900–2010

      Figure 9.9. Income inequality in emerging countries, 1910–2010

      Figure 10.1. Wealth inequality in France, 1810–2010

      Figure 10.2. Wealth inequality in Paris versus France, 1810–2010

      Figure 10.3. Wealth inequality in Britain, 1810–2010

      Figure 10.4. Wealth inequality in Sweden, 1810–2010

      Figure 10.5. Wealth inequality in the United States, 1810–2010

      Figure 10.6. Wealth inequality in Europe versus the United States, 1810–2010

      Figure 10.7. Return to capital and growth: France, 1820–1913

      Figure 10.8. Capital share and saving rate: France, 1820–1913

      Figure 10.9. Rate of return versus growth rate at the world level, from Antiquity until 2100

      Figure 10.10. After tax rate of return versus growth rate at the world level, from Antiquity until 2100

      Figure 10.11. After tax rate of return versus growth rate at the world level, from Antiquity until 2200

      Figure 11.1. The annual inheritance flow as a fraction of national income, France, 1820–2010

      Figure 11.2. The mortality rate in France, 1820–2100

      Figure 11.3. Average age of decedents and inheritors: France, 1820–2100

      Figure 11.4. Inheritance flow versus mortality rate: France, 1820–2010

      Figure 11.5. The ratio between average wealth at death and average wealth of the living: France, 1820–2010

      Figure 11.6. Observed and simulated inheritance flow: France, 1820–2100

      Figure 11.7. The share of inherited wealth in total wealth: France, 1850–2100

      Figure 11.8. The annual inheritance flow as a fraction of household disposable income: France, 1820–2010

      Figure 11.9. The share of inheritance in the total resources (inheritance and work) of cohorts born in 1790–2030

      Figure 11.10. The dilemma of Rastignac for cohorts born in 1790–2030

      Figure 11.11. Which fraction of a cohort receives in inheritance the equivalent of a lifetime labor income?

      Figure 11.12. The inheritance flow in Europe, 1900–2010

      Figure 12.1. The world’s billionaires according to Forbes, 1987–2013

      Figure 12.2. Billionaires as a fraction of global population and wealth, 1987–2013

      Figure 12.3. The share of top wealth fractiles in world wealth, 1987–2013

      Figure 12.4. The world capital/income ratio, 1870–2100

      Figure 12.5. The distribution of world capital, 1870–2100

      Figure 12.6. The net foreign asset position of rich countries

      Figure 13.1. Tax revenues in rich countries, 1870–2010

      Figure 14.1. Top income tax rates, 1900–2013

      Figure 14.2. Top inheritance tax rates, 1900–2013

      Index

      Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, 456–­457

      Accounting: national, 55–­59, 92, 230, 269; corporate, 203

      Accumulation of wealth. See Wealth accumulation

      Accumulation principle, infinite, 7–­11, 228

      Acemoglu, Daron, 624n20, 639nn45,48

      Africa: production in, 60–­61; income and, 63–­64, 66, 68–­69, 586nn33,34; growth in, 75, 78–­79, 94, 388; capital/income ratio in, 195, 461–­462; taxes and, 491; capital outflow from, 539. See also North Africa; South Africa; Sub-­Saharan Africa

      Age-­wealth profile, 393–­399

      Agricultural land: in Britain and France, 117, 119; in Germany, 141; in America, 151–­152; elasticity of substitution and, 222–­223

      Albert, Michel, 592n5

      Allais, Maurice, 642n17, 641n40

      Allen, Robert, 224–­225, 580n5, 598n4

      Alternative investments, 449–­450, 454, 456

      Althusser, Louis, 655n2

      Alvaredo, Facundo, 17

      America: income and, 63, 68; birth rate and, 79; growth in, 93; capital in, 140, 150–­158; structure of in­e­qual­ity in, 152. See also North America

      “American exceptionalism,” 484

      American Revolution, 30, 493

      Ancien Régime, 104, 106; public debt and,

      127, ­129, 183; in­e­qual­ity and, 251, 263–­264, 341–­342, 480; taxation and, 493, 501

      Anderson, Gosta Esping, 587n5

      Andrieu, Claire, 591n18

      “Annuitized wealth,” 384, 391–­392

    &n
    bsp; Aristocats, The (cartoon), 365–­366

      Arnault, Bernard, 626n33

      Arrow, Kenneth, 654n56

      Asia: income and, 63, 66, 68, 585n24, 586n34; investment in, 70–­71; growth in, 78–­79, 82, 94, 99; capital/income ratio in, 195; financial crisis in, 535

      Assets: public, 135–­139; prices of, 169–­172, 187–­191, 452–­453, 626n31; financial, 209, 627n43; real and nominal, 209–­212, 598n11; size effects of, 453–­454; taxation of, 518. See also Net asset positions; Wealth

      Asset structure, twenty-­first vs. eigh­teenth century, 118–­120, 122–­123

      Atkinson, Anthony, 17, 18, 343, 581nn21,23, 582n36, 606n33, 610n26, 614n32, 622n60, 638n35

      Austen, Jane, fiction of, 2, 53–­54, 105–­106, 241, 411–­412, 415–­516, 619n36, 620n40, 621n52; Sense and Sensibility, 113, 362, 413–­414; Mansfield Park, 115, 120–­121, 207; Persuasion, 362

      Austerity, public debt and, 541, 545–­546

      Australia, 174, 177–­178

      Autrer, Matthieu, 641n4

      Badiou, Alain, 655n2

      Bagnall, Roger S., 612n10

      Bakija, Jon, 607n42

      Balassa-­Samuelson model, 586n28

      Balzac, Honoré de, fiction of, 2, 53–­54, 207, 411, 415–­416, 601n2, 619n36; Père Goriot, 104, 106, 113–­115, 238–­240, 343, 412, 440, 590n3, 620n43; César Birotteau, 115, 207, 214, 412–­413, 590nn2,3, 615n34, 624n15

      Banerjeee, Abhijit, 17, 611n32, 634n49

      Banking information: automatic transmission of, 516, 520, 521–­524, 529; Cyprus crisis and, 554–­555

      Bank of En­gland, 551–­552, 557

      Bank of Japan, 551, 557, 649n22

      Banks, central. See Central banks

      Banque de France, 649n25

      Barro, Robert, 135

      Barry, Redmond, 620n40

      Baudelot, Christian, 605n20

      Bebchuk, Lucian, 611n35

      Becker, Gary, 385, 616n7, 621n55

      Beckert, Jens, 614n22, 616n6, 637n25, 638n33

      Béguin, K., 598n7

      Belle Époque, 106, 127, 132; capital/income ratio and, 148, 152, 154, 196; income in­e­qual­ity in, 263–­264, 266–­267, 272, 282, 322; in­e­qual­ity of capital own­ership in, 339, 342–­345, 369–­370; age and fortune in, 393–­396

      Bernstein, Eduard, 219

      Bettencourt, Liliane, 440–­441, 525, 642n14

      Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, 626n32

      Billionaires, 433–­434, 444–­446, 458–­459, 463, 623n7, 624n13

      Birth rates, 78–­83, 587n4, 588n7

      Bjorklund, Anders, 631n26

      Blank, Rebecca, 608n12, 640n53

      Boisguillebert, Pierre le Pesant sieur de, 56, 590n1

     


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