fear, vs. greed, 38
Federal Elections Commission, 69
Federal Open Markets Committee, 190–91
Federal Reserve, 37, 188
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 198
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 465
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, 179
feedback:
in climate system, 133
in economic forecasts, 188, 195
negative, 38, 39
positive, 38, 39, 368
on weather forecasting, 134–35, 386
FEMA, 141
Fenway Park, 79
Fesenko, Kyrylo, 238
Fine, Reuben, 272
First Amendment, 380
fiscal policy, 42, 186n
Fischer, Bobby, 286–88, 287, 443
fish, in poker, 312, 316, 317–19
Fisher, Ronald Aylmer, 251–52, 254, 256–57, 259, 260
Fitch Ratings, 19, 24
FiveThirtyEight, 9, 48, 59, 61, 62, 62, 65, 67, 69, 314, 320, 468, 497
Intrade vs., 334, 335, 336–37
Five Tools, 95–96
Fleming, Alexander, 119
Flip That House, 32
Flip This House, 32
Floehr, Eric, 131, 132, 133–34, 474
flood prediction, 177–79, 178
floods, 145, 177–79, 178
flop, in poker, 299, 303, 303, 304, 305, 306, 310
Florida, 108
flu, 204–5
A/Victoria, 205–6, 208
bird, 209, 216, 229
H1N1, see H1N1
H3N2, 216
news about, 230
1957 outbreak of, 229
1968 outbreak of, 229
Spanish, 205, 211, 214, 224, 229
vaccine for, 206–8, 483–84
fluid dynamics, 118
football, 80n, 92–93, 185–86, 336
Ford, Gerald, 206, 208, 229
Ford, Henry, 212
forecasting:
in baseball, 72–73, 76–77, 82–84, 93, 99–103; see also PECOTA; scouts
in chess, 271, 289
by computer, 289
of earthquakes, see earthquake forecasting
as planning and decision making under uncertainty, 5, 267
predictions vs., 5, 149
progress and, 5
updating of, 73
forecasting, global warming, 380–82
complexity in, 382
consensus in, 382–84
uncertainty in, 382
ForecastWatch.com, 132
foreshocks, 144, 154, 155–57, 476
Fort Dix, 204, 206, 208, 223–25, 229
Fort Riley, 205
fortune-telling, 5
Fourier, Joseph, 375
foxes, 53–54, 54, 55, 73
consensus process emulated by, 67
improvements in predictions by, 57, 68
as television pundits, 56
Fox News, 51n, 55, 56
France, 120
Franklin, Benjamin, 262
Freakonomics (Levitt and Dubner), 9
Freakonomics blog, 136–37, 334
FRED, 225–26
Freddie Mac, 33
free agents, 82, 90, 94, 99
free markets, 1, 128, 332, 369, 370, 451, 496–97
free will, 112
see also determinism
French Wars of Religion, 4
frequentism, 252–53, 254, 259, 260
Freud, Sigmund, 53
Friedel, Frederic, 278–79, 282–83
Fritz, 278, 282n
Frontline, 370n
Fukushima nuclear reactor, 11, 168
Full Tilt Poker, 309
fundamental analysis, 341, 348, 354
fundamentals-based models, in elections forecasting, 68
futarchy, 201
Future Shock (Toffler), 12, 13
Galfond, Phil, 309
Galileo, 4, 254
Gallup polls, 364–65, 497
gambling, 232–61, 238
on baseball, 286
Bayesian philosophy’s esteem for, 255–56, 362
over-under line, 239–40, 257, 286
point spread, 239
Game Change, 59
Game of the Century, 286–88, 287
game theory, 284–85, 311, 419
Gates, Bill, 264
Gates, H. L. “Skip,” 417n
GDP, 482
forecasting of, 180, 181–83, 182, 186n, 190, 194, 198, 199, 200–201, 202–3
growth in, vs. job growth, 189
Gehringer, Charlie, 84, 85
German Peasants’ War, 4
Germany, 2, 115, 120, 210
Germany, East, 52
Giambi, Jason, 99
GIGO (garbage in, garbage out), 289
GISS temperature record, 393–95
Giuliani, Giampaolo, 143, 144–45, 146, 476
Gladwell, Malcolm, 53
global cooling, 399–400
global financial crisis, 11, 16, 20, 30–36, 39–43, 118–19, 329
failure to predict, 181, 327
global population, growth of, 212
global warming, 13
causality and, 372–73
Climategate and, 408
contrarianism and, 380
Copenhagen conference on, 378–80
IPCC report on, see International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
predictions of, 373–76, 393, 397–99, 401–6, 402, 507
self-interest and, 380
skepticism of, 377, 380, 383, 384–85
use of term, 376, 377n
Goldman Sachs, 24n, 184–85, 199, 364
gonorrhea, 222
Goodhart’s law, 188
Google, 264, 290–92
creative culture at, 291
Google searches, 200, 290–91
Gorbachev, Mikhail, 50, 51, 52, 160
Gore, Al, 11, 67, 68, 381–82, 381, 385, 403, 514, 469
government spending, 42, 186n
GPS, 174–75, 219
Graham, Benjamin, 364
Grand Forks, N. Dak., 177–79
Grant, Ulysses S., 122
Great Depression, 48, 347, 349, 453, 464
Great Moderation, 190, 191
Great Plains, 177–78
Great Recession, 11, 16, 19, 20, 87
failure to predict, 179–81, 200–201
leading indicators and, 187
Great Sumatra Earthquake, 161, 171, 436, 478
greed, vs. fear, 38
Green, Kesten, 382, 388, 402
Green, Matthew, 139–40
greenhouse effect, 370–71, 377, 388, 392, 406, 408, 410, 506
use of term, 376
greenhouse gases, 379, 395
see also specific gases
Greenspan, Alan, 349
green technology, 378
Grefenstette, John, 226–27, 228
Gregoire, Christine, 410
Greinke, Zack, 101
grizzly bears, 267
gross domestic product, see GDP
Grossman, Sanford, 363
group forecasts, 66
see also consensus
groupthink, 384
Guillain-Barré syndrome, 208
Gulf of Mexico, 109, 387, 392
Gulf War, 52
Gutenberg, Beno, 151, 168
Gutenberg, Johannes, 1–3, 4, 447
Gutenberg-Richter law, 151–53, 168, 169, 171, 172, 174, 437–38
Guzman, Joel, 89
H1N1, 205–9, 210–12, 224–25, 228, 229
death rate from, 211–12, 211, 215–16
see also bird flu; swine flu
H3N2, 216
Haiti, 147n, 153, 155–56, 156, 224, 436
HAL 9000, 264, 283, 290n
Halley, Edmund, 447
Halley’s Comet, 447
Halliwell, Geri, 383n
Hamilton, Josh, 496
hand reading, in poker, 298
Hansen, James, 370, 373,
393, 395–96, 397, 402
Hanson, Robin, 201–2
Happer, William, 377
Harper, Bryce, 93
Harrison, Benjamin, 334
Hatzius, Jan, 184–85, 186, 188, 194, 195–96, 203, 464
Hawaii, 416, 419
health-care bill, 379
Heartland Institute, 382n, 409
heat island effect, 506
hedge funds, 356, 364, 463
Hedgehog and the Fox, The (Berlin), 53
hedgehogs, 53, 54, 54, 64, 443, 450, 452
audacious predictions and, 66
consensus views and, 66–67
as not learning from mistakes, 57, 64
as television pundits, 55
too much information and, 57, 58–59, 68
hedging, 202
Hein, Piet, 232n
Heisenberg, Werner, 113, 188, 472
herd immunity, 223
herding behavior, 356, 357–58, 367, 368, 384
Hernandez, Felix, 80
heuristics, 313
availability, 424
for chess, 267, 269, 272, 273, 284, 286
in investing, 367
misapplications of, 389
Occam’s razor, 389
Heyward, Jason, 85–86
Hibbs, Douglas, 67–68, 469
Hippocratic oath, 230
Hiroshima, Japan, 432
Hispanics, 468
Hitchens, Christopher, 251
Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, The (Adams), 26
hitters, hitting, 88, 90, 91, 95–96
HIV, 221–23, 222, 225, 228, 488
Hoke, Jim, 123, 125
Hokkaido, Japan, 160
Holy Roman Empire, 5
homeownership rates, 31
home sales, total volume of, 34
homosexuality, definition of, 487
honesty, in forecasting, 129, 130
Hong Kong, 210
Horner, Bob, 82, 83
hot summers, 395–96, 396
Hough, Susan, 146–47, 148, 152, 154, 157, 172, 174
House of Representatives, U.S., 61–62, 62, 69, 100n, 410–11, 468, 497
Oversight Committee of, 19, 22, 42
see also Congress, U.S.; Senate, U.S.
housing bubble, 22–23, 24–26, 28–29, 30–34, 36, 38–39, 42, 43, 45, 68, 186
credit bubble and, 196
real-time identification of, 22–23, 33, 347, 369
housing prices, 19, 43, 44, 186n, 187
Hsu, Feng-hsiung, 268
Huckabay, Gary, 78, 82, 85, 88, 89
Hudson, Tim, 99
Hugo, Hurricane, 138
human judgment, see biases; heuristics
Hume, David, 242, 332
humility, 97–98
Hungary, 52
Hurricane Betsy, 140
Hurricane Hugo, 138
Hurricane Irene, 139
Hurricane Katrina, 55, 108–10, 138–41, 388, 472, 473
Hurricane Rita, 139
hurricanes, 113, 471–72, 476
forecasting of, 126–27, 127, 145–46, 387–88
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, 123
hypothesis testing, 230, 243–49, 256–57, 266–67, 376, 452
IBM, 9, 10, 12, 110, 266, 268, 269, 270, 281, 283–84
ice age, 398
ideas, evolution of, 1
imagination, 266, 288, 289
failures of, 288, 423
improbabability, unfamiliarity vs., 419–20
Inc., 187
incentives, 184, 250, 313, 333, 356, 357, 501
Inconvenient Truth, An, 385
index funds, 344, 370
India, 210n
Indiana Pacers, 236n, 489
indicators:
lagging, 187–88
leading, 186–88, 196–97
Indonesia, 209
Industrial Revolution, 2, 5–6, 112, 212
infectious disease, 16, 204–31
SIR model of, 220–21, 221, 223, 225, 389
see also specific diseases
inflation, 11, 186n, 191, 198, 202
information, 1, 451
analyzing, 232
asymmetrical, 35
collecting, 232
exclusive, 98, 99–101
explosion of, 3–4, 6, 7, 12, 13, 17, 45
forecasting and, 5
quality of, 2, 13, 17
information age, 7, 45, 358
information overload, 12
information processing, 449
information technology, 411
revolution in, 1–4
information theory, 265
InfoSpace, 353, 360
initial condition uncertainty, 390–92
insider trading, 341–42
intelligent extraterrestrial species, 488
interest rates, 186n, 190, 202
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 382, 383–84, 393
1990 predictions of, 373–76, 389, 393, 397–99, 397, 399, 401, 507
“uncertainty” in, 389
Internet, 13, 223, 250, 514
poker on, 296–97, 310
quality of information on, 3
Intrade, 333, 334, 335, 336–37, 358, 367, 497
invisible hand, 332
Ioannidis, John P. A., 11, 249, 250, 253
Iowa caucus, 60, 217, 252, 333, 334
Iran, 152–53
Iranian Revolution, 428
Iraq, 420
Ireland, 210
Irene, Hurricane, 139
Irish Confederate Wars, 4
irrational exuberance, 346–52
Irrational Exuberance (Shiller), 22, 347–48, 354
irrationality, 356–57
IRS, 481
Israel, 210, 440–42
Italy, 476
Ivey, Phil, 308–9
Jackson, Phil, 233
James, Bill, 77, 81–82, 84, 89, 102–5, 338, 471
Janabi, Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-, 443
Japan, 144, 145n, 190, 379, 394, 423, 476
Pearl Harbor attacked by, 10, 412–13, 414, 415–17, 419–20, 423, 426, 444, 510
real estate bubble in, 11, 31–32, 32, 45, 52
2011 earthquake in, 154, 155, 168–71, 172
Jesuits, 112
Jeter, Derek, 446
job growth, GDP growth vs., 189
Johnson, Magic, 237
Jones, Chipper, 85
Jordan, Tom, 174
Journal of Geophysics Research, 395
Journal of Zoology, 148
JSVAX (Janus Contrarian T), 339–40
judgment, see biases; heuristics
Jupiter, 242–43
Justice Department, U.S., 319, 320
Kahneman, Daniel, 64, 366, 424
kamikaze pilots, 423
Kanagawa Institute of Technology, 476
Kansas City, Mo., 136–37
Kansas City Athletics, 94
Kapanke, Dan, 70–72
Karpov, Anatoly, 280, 281
Kashyap, Anil, 26, 464
Kasparov, Garry, 266, 267–85, 443, 493–94
Deep Blue’s final games against, 282–83
Deep Blue’s first game against, 268, 270–79, 271, 274, 275, 276, 278
Deep Blue’s second game against, 279–82, 280
moves ahead seen by, 279
Katrina, Hurricane, 55, 108–10, 138–41, 388, 472, 473
Keilis-Borok, Vladimir, 159–60, 161, 167, 477
Kelling, George L., 439
Kemp, Matt, 89
Kennedy, John F., 50
Kenya, 422
Kerry, John, 55
Keynes, John Maynard, 65, 360
Killebrew, Harmon, 94
Kind, Ron, 70
Kinsler, Ian, 89
Knight, Frank H., 29
knowledge, accumulation of, 2–3
Kokko, Hanna, 219
Kotchman, Casey, 76
Koufax, Sandy, 94
&nb
sp; KPMG, 78, 84, 296
Kroll, Jules, 23–24
Kroll Bond Ratings, 23–24
Kroll Inc., 23
Krugman, Paul, 7, 22, 40–41, 184
Kuwait City, 374
lagging indicators, 187–88
La Gloria, Mexico, 216
Lajoie, Nap, 102
Laliberté, Guy, 318
Lamont, Owen, 361
Lancet, The, 206
language, 230
Laplace, Pierre-Simon, 112–14, 242–43, 248–49, 251, 255
Laplace’s Demon, 112–14, 127
L’Aquila, Italy, 142–44, 148, 154–55, 157, 173, 476
Larsen, Bent, 268
Las Vegas, Nev., 10
housing in, 19
Laurila, David, 76–77
Law, Keith, 75
Leading Economic Index, 187, 480
leading indicators, 186–88, 196–97
learning ability, 98
Lehman Brothers, 19, 34–35, 36, 37–38, 42, 48
Lenin, Vladimir, 428
Lester, Jon, 89
leverage, 29, 33–37, 43, 196
“Leveraged Losses: Why Mortgage Defaults Matter” (Hatzius), 184
Levi, Michael, 435–36
Lewis, David, 204–5, 206
Lewis, Michael, 77, 93–94, 105, 355
liberalism, 509
LifeMinders, Inc., 353
lightning, 125–26
Lima, 158, 174
limit hold ’em, 311, 322, 322, 324n
Lin, Jeremy, 119
linear regression, 498
linearity, see nonlinear systems
Lipsitch, Marc, 223, 229
Lisbon earthquake, 145
literature, progress of, 4
Livingston Survey, 183
Lockerbie bombing, 427
Loft, Richard, 111, 112, 114–15, 118
logarithmic scales, 142n, 144, 146, 151, 263, 429–30, 430
logistic regression analysis, 489
Loma Prieta earthquake, 160
London, 222
Long Boom, 189–90
Long Leading Index, U.S., 196
Lorenz, Edward, 118, 119, 129, 472
Los Angeles, Calif., 368, 432, 476
Los Angeles Dodgers, 94, 98
Los Angeles Lakers, 233–37, 243, 246, 258, 489
Los Angeles Times, 160, 234
lottery tickets, 186, 324
Louisiana, 109
“Love Will Tear Us Apart,” 283
Lowess regression, 478
Lucas, Robert, 188, 200
luck, 79
skill vs., 321–23, 322, 338–39
Lugar, Richard, 434
lung cancer, 254–55, 258
Luther, Martin, 4
Lynn, Fred, 79
Macal, Chip, 229
McCain, John, 48–49, 59, 358, 468
McDaniel, Raymond, 25
McGovern, George, 67
McLaughlin, John, 47
McLaughlin Group, The, 47–50, 49, 56, 103, 129, 314
McNess, Stephen K., 198
McVeigh, Timothy, 425
malaria, 214
Malkiel, Burton, 340n
mammogram, 245–46, 246
Mandelbrot, Benoit, 284
Manic Momentum strategy, 344–45, 345, 368
Mann, Michael, 408–9
manufacturing sector, 189
Maradona, Diego, 281