Chapter 16
China Officially China has never announced the true death toll in Tangshan, and it is still difficult to piece together that and other stories regarding the Chinese experience during the past twenty years. The previously cited Bryce Walker book Earthquake contains five citations that are good starting points:
“China Discloses 1976 Quake Deadliest in Four Centuries,” The New York Times, June 2, 1977.
“China, in effort to Modernize, Puts New Stress on Science and Technology,” The New York Times, July 14, 1977.
“China Predicts a Major Earthquake,” Unesco Courier, May 1976.
“China’s Killer Quake,” Newsweek, August 9, 1976.
“China’s Secret Earthquake,” New Scientist, October 4, 1979.
As to the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977, I would point any interested researcher to the full Congressional Record beginning with the appropriate House and Senate hearings of 1973, and focusing on the hearings before the Senate Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space of the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation of the 95th Contress (Bill S-126) and the equivalent hearings in the House. Be prepared for a lot of pontificating, but there is a wealth of information there that lays the foundation for all that has come since. The reauthorization hearings that have occurred since then are also important sources of additional, updated information—especially the series in 1985 and 1987.
Chapter 17
Dr. Karen McNally and the Mexican Quakes Please examine the notes to this chapter to review several key elements of source material concerning the Mexican earthquake “trapped” by Dr. McNally.
For a definitive look at the problem of labels in earthquake prediction, I highly recommend the following paper written by Dr. McNally in conjunction with Dr. Robert Wallace and Dr. James F. Davis (who, you may recall, is director of the California Division of Mines and Geology in Sacramento): Wallace, R. E., J. F. Davis, K. C. McNally, “Terms for Expressing Earthquake Potential, Prediction, and Probability,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 74, No. 5, pp. 1819–1825, October 1984.
Chapter 18
St. Helens Frankly, this is such a current event that research into the subject in any well-equipped library will yield a rich lode of resource material. I would also recommend you check the current USGS Publications of the U.S. Geological Survey book for late papers and circulars on the subject. Descriptions of the days surrounding the eruption of 1980 should be sought in the Seattle Times, The New York Times, and the Los Angeles Times, and summations in various magazines.
Chapter 19
Mammoth Lake’s Volcanic Confrontation I urge any interested person to obtain a copy of George Mader and Martha Blair’s study, Living with a Volcanic Threat (Portola Valley, CA: William Spangle and Associates, 1987). I have independently researched in Mammoth Lakes the entire scope of events described in the book, and find it to be highly accurate and an excellent work on the subject (though perhaps a bit strident in placing blame, which is understandable when you consider the innate frustration of urban planners who watch local populations repeatedly refusing to listen to the facts). The book is not available in unlimited quantity, but the authors may be contacted through their publisher at 3240 Alpine Road, Portola Valley, CA 94025. The report was prepared pursuant to a National Science Foundation Grant (ECE-8302302).
For the latest volcanological information, consult the U.S. Geological Survey’s publication catalog (Publications of the U.S. Geological Survey) for the current year under Long Valley Caldera.
Chapter 20
Coalinga There is no single source on Coalinga’s 1983 earthquake. Newspaper and magazine accounts provide a good starting point, but the story here is a human tragedy—the misguided reliance on the government and on private insurance (unbuttressed by a national earthquake or natural hazards reinsurance program) to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. Coalinga has never recovered, and while the depressed oil industry is part of the reason, the earthquake of 1983 bears the lion’s share of the blame. To follow my research, one would need to spend time in the town of Coalinga getting to know the story from the residents’ point of view. There is a study available through the California Office of Emergency Services, which was produced after hearings were held to examine what went wrong during the recovery period, but the root cause of the postrecovery malaise is not adequately addressed there.
Chapter 21
Mexico City For David Smollar’s article regarding Karen McNally’s hurried expedition to the Mexican coast, see the Wednesday, September 25, 1985, edition of the Los Angeles Times, Part 1, p. 11.
An excellent source of information comes from the cited hearing before the Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space of the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation of the U.S. Senate, 99th Congress, “First Session on the Earthquake in Mexico,” October 3, 1985, available in the Library of Congress, or from the Government Printing Office.
National Geographic also presented an excellent summation in an article printed in its May 1986 edition (Vol. 169, No. 5, p. 655), “Earthquake in Mexico,” which goes on to treat a variety of related subjects from Dr. McNally’s work to the Parkfield project. (The Dr. José Hernández Cabañas mentioned in the article, by the way, is not the same physician as that mentioned in this chapter, Dr. José Hernández Cruz.)
Also see:
“The Catastrophe in Mexico,” Newsweek, September 30, 1985, p. 16.
Fairweather, Virginia, “Rebuilding Mexico City, How Mexican Officials and Engineers Are Coping with the Earthquake Aftermath,” Civil Engineering/American Society of Civil Engineers, January 1986, p. 36.
Rosenblueth, Emilio, “The Mexican Earthquake: A Firsthand Report,” Civil Engineering//American Society of Civil Engineers, January 1986, p. 38.
“Damage in Mexico: A Double Quake,” Science News (Earth Sciences Section), January 11, 1986, p. 25.
Eisner, Richard (director of BAREPP), “The Mexico City Earthquake of September 19, 1985: Lessons for the Bay Area,” Networks: Earthquake Preparedness News, February 1986 (a publication of BAREPP, available through their offices at Metrocenter, 101 8th Street, Suite 152, Oakland, CA 94607).
Martinez, L., J. L. Albarran, and J. Fuentes, “Lessons in Welding from the 1985 Mexico City Earthquake,” Welding Journal, March 1987, p. 23–31.
Stockton, William, “Lessons Emerge from Mexican Quake,” The New York Times, November 5, 1985, Section C, p. 1.
Beck, James L., and John F. Hall, “Engineering Features of the Recent Mexican Earthquake,” Engineering and Science Magazine (a publication of Caltech), Vol. XIIX, No. 3, p. 2, January 1986.
NOTE: These represent just a good starting sample. There are voluminous citations in the years following the 1985 quake, and I would caution that a full review requires examination of a broad range of disciplines.
Chapter 22
Charleston, SCEPP, and BAREPP For further research into the great Charleston quake of 1886, start with the historical document The Charleston Earthquake (Government Printing Office, 1890).
For an excellent and comprehensive look at the emerging struggles to effect technology transfer of seismic engineering information in the southeastern United States, and to educate the population to the seismic risks, see Earthquakes Hazards, Risk, and Mitigation in South Carolina, and the Southeastern United States, prepared by the South Carolina Seismic Safety Consortium in participation with the Southeastern United States Seismic Safety Consortium, Dr. Charles Lindbergh of The Citadel, contributing editor (The Citadel Print Shop, Charleston, August 1986).
An interesting book of stories about the 1886 quake principally aimed at children has been compiled by Professor Joyce B. Bagwell, of the Baptist College at Charleston, entitled Low Country Quake Tales (Southern Historical Press, Inc., P.O. Box 738, Easley, SC 29641, 1986).
SCEPP, the Southern California Earthquake Preparedness Project, and BAREPP, the Bay Area Earthquake Preparedness Project, are both pace-set
ting organizations with highly developed methodologies and information resources that manage to do an amazing amount of good with minuscule funding. The address and phone number of each organization are reproduced here in the hope that anyone interested in beginning a community or area approach to earthquake preparedness will study the pioneering work already accomplished by these two organizations in public motivation, information dissemination, and the effective advocacy of community action and intergovernmental coordination.
SCEPP
(A cooperative state/federal action-planning project under the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the Federal Emergency Management Agency)
600 S. Commonwealth Ave., Suite 1100
213-739-6696
BAREPP
(A project of the California Seismic Safety Commission funded jointly by the State of California and the Federal Emergency Management Agency)
Metrocenter
101 8th Street, Suite 152
Oakland, CA 94607
415-540-2713
Chapter 23
Anchorage—Current Status Please see this chapter’s notes for the applicable citations.
Chapter 24
The Parkfield Project There have been many articles written during the past few years on this spotlighted project, and a perusal of the popular-magazine article listings in your library under “Earthquakes” as a gross subject heading will yield a wide variety of information sources.
For a comprehensive technical view, however, see Bakun, W. H., and A. G. Lindh (of the USGS), “The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment,” Science, Vol. 229, pp. 619–624, August 16, 1985.
There is a good overview article covering Parkfield and many of the other current subjects involving California in Brownlee, Shannon, “Waiting for the Big One,” Discover, July 1986, p. 52. This touches on New Madrid, Charleston, Dr. McNally’s work in Mexico, the Mexico City quake, and numerous other aspects.
For information on the history of the tiny Parkfield community, I would refer you to Mrs. Donalee Thomason, who is the de facto historian of the area, and who is working on a book concerning the past century in the Cholame Valley. (She may be reached at P.O. Box 3565, San Miguel, CA 93451.)
Chapter 25
The Whittier, California, Quake of 1987 Studies and technical papers are emerging as this book goes to press, so a deeper investigation of the seismological details requires a search of the latest scientific publications, and especially the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.
The story of the quake itself requires first a perusal of the Los Angeles Times, October 1–6, 1987.
From my on-site research in Whittier the Sunday and Monday following the quake, there is one point I want to drive home in no uncertain terms: All the frightening destruction of average masonry homes and buildings was caused by what was, essentially, a tiny earthquake and its aftershocks. The quake that will occur at any time on the San Andreas near Ft. Tejon will radiate a magnitude 100 times greater, and release energy over 900 times greater than the tiny seismological “love pat” that killed three people and did $100 million damage in Whittier. Please think about that, wherever you live. The $60 billion loss (not to mention the loss of fellow citizens) that WILL eventually occur in the L.A. basin will cause insurance companies alone to frantically liquidate assets in the hundreds of millions, threatening our financial system, and posing the possibility of a national economic disaster and stock market collapse. If you think this is exaggeration, work the numbers out yourself—then try to tell yourself this is only a “West Coast problem”!
Chapter 26
Great Quakes and the Pacific Northwest—National
Recommendations and Conclusions When it is published early in 1989, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Open-File Report on the April workshop held in Olympia, Washington, on the earthquake hazard to the Pacific Northwest will be a prime source of late information. Having participated in that conference and watched jaws drop all over the room at the revelation of the latest evidence uncovered by Dr. Brian Atwater, et al., I can assure you that this is, indeed, an emerging, cutting-edge story.
In that regard I would refer you to any of the accounts of the USGS Workshop published in the Seattle Times or the Tacoma News Tribune for the week of April 13, 1988.
The pivotal research done by Brian Atwater can be found in Atwater, Brian, “Evidence for Great Holocene Earthquakes Along the Outer Coast of Washington State,” Science, Vol. 236, pp. 942–944, May 22, 1987.
Also see:
Heaton, Thomas H., and Stephen H. Hartzell, “Earthquake Hazards on the Cascadia Subduction Zone,” Science, Vol. 236, pp. 162–168, April 10, 1987.
Sullivan, Walter, “Earthquake Threat Is Posed in Pacific Northwest,” The New York Times, Monday, April 27, 1987, p. 8.
Monastersky, Richard, “The Juan de Fuca Plate: A Sticky Situation” (reaction to Atwater’s May 22, 1987, paper in Science), Science News, July 18, 1987, p. 42.
A FINAL NOTE: The essence of the scientific method is to constantly examine all viewpoints and theories retaining any credibility until the preponderance of evidence favors one. Therefore, seismology, geology, geophysics, and paleoseismology are always in a state of dynamic theoretical flux. This book is not about an adventure concluded, but one just begun. Please don’t hesitate to explore further, whether in the role of an armchair enthusiast or of a budding geophysicist.
Index
ABC Television News, 283, 284
Nightline (Ted Koppel), 283, 284
Acapulco, Mexico, 291, 292, 300
Aki, Dr. K., 376
Alaska, 118, 119, 120–127, 129, 134, 150–152, 346
1964 Great Earthquake (Chapters 2–8), 25–113, 163
tectonic cause of 1964 great quake, 152
Alaska Department of Geology, 372n
Alaska Great Earthquake of 1964, 175, 186
beneficial effects of quake on funding for research, 163, 166, 172
cost of, in comparison to 1971 San Fernando quake, 187
effects felt elsewhere, 116–120, 346
expected reaction of eastern U.S. residents to, 129, 132
experience of Valdez, Seward, and Anchorage. See: Chapters 2–8.
Alaska Hotel (Valdez, Alaska), 98
Alaska Railroad, 27, 29–31, 66, 83–87, 89–93, 105, 125, 318
Alaska Railroad docks, Seward, Alaska, 30, 81, 82, 89, 90, 121, 347
Alaska Railroad Engineer, 82, 89, 90, 92
Alaska Standard (coastal tanker owned by Standard Oil), 29, 82, 83, 87, 88, 91, 93, 107, 108
Third Mate Ted Pedersen, 87, 88, 107, 108
Alaska State Housing Authority (ASHA), 314, 315
Alaska Steamship Company, 30, 35, 38
Alateen, 48
Alcan Highway (Alaska-Canada Highway), 49
Alcoholics Anonymous, 48
Aleutian Islands, Alaska, 257
Aleutian Trench, 152
Alexander, George, 262
Allen, Dr. Clarence R., 173, 186, 187, 361n
All Saints Episcopal Church, Anchorage, Alaska, 49, 68
Alluvial fan, 28
Altadena, California, 179, 335
American Association of Geographers, 1909 meeting, 170
American Geophysical Union
1968 meeting (validation of plate tectonics theory), 163
1987 meeting in San Francisco, California, 343, 344
American Red Cross, 280, 284
Anchorage, Alaska, 307, 309, (Chapter 23) 311–321, 371–372n
Anchorage City Planning Dept., 315
city’s ability to control exposure to seismic risk, 271, 371–372n
Comprehensive Development Plan of 1976, 320, 372n
effects of 1964 quake on, 43–49, 51, 53, 65–70, 71–78, 108–113, 117, 120, 122, 124–127, 334.
future earthquake threat to, 350
Municipal Assembly, 316, 318, 371n
Seward as seaport gat
eway for, 31
Anchorage Daily Times, 46, 72, 110, 316
Anchorage Petroleum Club, 43, 44, 68, 77, 109
Anchorage Times Building, 110
Anchorage Westward Hotel (now the Anchorage Hilton), 43, 44, 46, 66–68, 108, 314, 316, 320
Anchorage Petroleum Club, 43, 44, 68, 77, 109
Andes Mountains, South America, 257
Andrews Air Force Base, Washington, D.C., 256
Appalachians, 129
Army dock (Seward, Alaska), 87, 90, 105
Ashkhabad, USSR, 232
Atlantic Ocean, 158
Atwater, Brian, 15–19, 21, 22, 24, 25, 341–344, 350, 365n
Atwater, Fran, 19
Atwater, Patricia, 19
Atwater, Sarah, 19, 22
Atwood, Robert (Bob) (publisher of the Anchorage Daily Times), 46, 47, 66, 69, 72, 78, 111, 112, 117, 316, 317, 371n
Evangeline Atwood, 46, 111
Audubon, John, 143
Bagwell, Professor Joyce, 306, 369–370n
Bailey, Dr. Roy, 261–266, 268
Bakersfield, California, 362n
Bakun, Dr. William, 325, 328
Baptist College at Charleston, South Carolina, 306
Barents Sea, 118
BAREPP (Bay Area Earthquake Preparedness Project), 308, 309, 345, 349, 371n
address, 382
Bay Area Earthquake Preparedness Project. See: BAREPP.
Beatles, The, 48, 66
Beijing (Peking), China, 225–232
State Seismological Bureau, 225–232, 235
Bell, Steve (ABC Nightline), 283, 284
Benioff, Dr. Hugo, 152, 153, 157, 159, 160, 358n
retraction of theory, 159, 160
Benioff zone, 152, 157, 160
Benito Juárez Hospital. See: Hospital Juárez.
Ben-Menahem, Dr. Ari, 154
Berkeley, California, 119, 165, 166
Bernal, Antonio, 335
Bishop, California, 177, 259
Blair, Martha (author of Living with a Volcanic Threat), 366n
Body-Wave Magnitude Scale explanation, 376
Boeing 707, 133, 134
Bolt, Dr. Bruce, 328
Bootlegger Cove Clay, 45, 69, 70, 108, 307, 313, 315, 318, 320
Boston, Massachusetts, 11, 130, 146, 307, 309