16 “carbon bank”: Freeman J. Dyson, “Can We Control the Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere?” Energy 2 (1977): pp. 287–91.
17 An 8-ounce glass of water is equal to: Sheffield, p. 158.
18 “I know what the other material is”: Ralph Lapp, quoted in “Perón’s Atom,” Time, April 2, 1951, www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,814503,00.html.
19 “Less than that”: Seife, p. 76.
20 “Even if the plant were flattened”: W. Wayt Gibbs, “Plan B for Energy: 8 Revolutionary Energy Sources,” Scientific American, September 2006; reprinted April 2, 2009, www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=plan-b-for-energy-8-ideas.
21 “A decade ago”: Ibid.
22 If the pellet is irregular by more than 50 nanometers: Seife, p. 211.
23 it will weigh 23,000 tons … ten times the amount of energy: ITER, www.iter.org/factsfigures.
24 The ITER is still just a science project: Gibbs, “Plan B,” Scientific American, September 2006.
25 “SSP offers a truly sustainable”: Editors of Scientific American, Oil and the Future of Energy, p. 217.
26 Ben Bova, writing in the Washington Post: Ben Bova, “To the Next President” (originally titled “An Energy Fix Written in the Stars,” guest editorial, Washington Post, October 12, 2008), www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/bova.htm.
27 “It sounds like a science fiction cartoon”: International Herald Tribune, September 2, 2009, p. 14. Also see Shigeru Sato and Yuji Okada, “Mitsubishi, IHI to Join $21 Bln Space Solar Project,” August 31, 2009; www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJ529lsdk9HI.
28 “These expenses”: Shigeru Sato and Yuji Okada, “Mitsubishi, IHI to Join $21 Bln Space Solar Project,” Bloomberg, August 31, 2009, www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJ529lsdk9HI.
6. FUTURE OF SPACE TRAVEL: TO THE STARS
1 One possibility is the Europa Ice Clipper Mission: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/1999/ast02feb99_1/.
2 One game changer has been the discovery of ancient ice: http://lcross.arc.nasa.gov.
3 “This is an uncertain market”: New York Times, September 16, 2010, p. A3.
4 Physicist Freeman Dyson has narrowed down some experimental technologies: Dyson, pp. 88–99.
5 “For transmission lines”: Katherine Bourzac, “Making Carbon Nanotubes into Long Fibers,” Technology Review, November 10, 2009, www.technologyreview.com/energy/23921/.
6 Initially, the task was so difficult that no one won the prize: BBC-TV, November 5, 2009.
7 But finally, in May 2010, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ikaros.
8 “For me, Orion … 2,000 bombs”: Nicholas Dawidoff, “The Civil Heretic,” New York Times, March 25, 2009, www.nytimes.com/2009/03/29/magazine/29Dyson-t.html?pagewanted=7&_r=1.
9 “The exploration of the solar system”: Vint Cerf, “One Is Glad to Be of Service,” in Denning, pp. 229–30.
10 In 2007 and 2009, the Air Force released position papers detailing: Scott A. Dickson, “Enabling Battlespace Persistent Surveillance: The Form, Function and Future of Smart Dust,” April 2007 (Blue Horizon Paper, Center for Strategy and Technology, Air War College).
7. FUTURE OF WEALTH: WINNERS AND LOSERS
1 “The great Islamic civilization went into decline when Muslim scholars”: Umi Hani Sharani, “Muslims Almost Totally Dependent on Others, Says Mahathir,” Muslim Institute, April 15, 2006, www.musliminstitute.com/article.php?id=499.
2 “Heavens, no. It will be a hundred years”: William J. Holstein, “To Gauge the Internet, Listen to the Steam Engine,” New York Times, August 26, 2001, http://www.nytimes.com/2001/08/26/business/26SVAL.html?scp=1&sq=%22to%20gauge%20the%20internet%22&st=cse.
3 “attribute 90 percent of income growth in England and the United States”: Virginia Postrel, “Avoiding Previous Blunders,” New York Times, January 1, 2004, www.nytimes.com/2004/01/01/business/01scene.html.
4 “A century ago, railroad companies”: Ibid.
5 “In the 19th century”: Thomas L. Friedman, “Green the Bailout,” New York Times, September 28, 2008, p. WK11, www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/opinion/28friedman.html.
6 From 1900 to 1925, the number of automobile startup companies: Steve Lohr, “New Economy; Despite Its Epochal Name, the Clicks-and-Mortar Age May Be Quietly Assimilated,” New York Times, October 8, 2001, www.nytimes.com/2001/10/08/business/new-economy-despite-its-epochal-name-clicks-mortar-age-may-be-quietly.html?scp=30&sq=automobile&st=nyt.
7 “The early 21st century saw a boom”: Ibid.
8 “The do-it-yourself model”: Charles Gasparino, “Merrill Lynch to Offer Online Trading,” ZDNet News, June 1, 1999, www.zdnet.com/news/merrill-lynch-to-offer-online-trading/95883.
9 “Rarely in history has the leader in an industry”: Ibid.
10 “In practice, the vast bulk of this ‘information’ ”: McRae, p. 175.
11 “Today, knowledge and skills”: Thurow, p. 68.
12 “With everything else dropping out of the competitive equation”: Thurow, p. 74.
13 “in 1991 Britain became”: McRae, p. 12.
14 “After correcting for general inflation”: Thurow, p. 67.
15 “The prolonged migration”: James Grant, “Sometimes the Economy Needs a Setback,” New York Times, September 9, 2001, www.nytimes.com/2001/09/09/opinion/sometimes-the-economy-needs-a-setback.html.
16 “Success or failure depends”: Thurow, p. 72.
17 “The old motors of growth”: McRae, pp. 12–13.
18 “we are told by the World Bank that nearly 2.8 billion people”: Toffler, p. 288.
8. FUTURE OF HUMANITY: PLANETARY CIVILIZATION
1 “People will inevitably start to look around them”: Kenichi Ohmae, The End of the Nation State: The Rise of Regional Economies (New York: Free Press, 1995), p. 45.
2 “It is impossible to imagine the height to which may be carried”: Benjamin Franklin, letter to Joseph Priestley, quoted in Cornish, p. 173.
3 “Science is organized knowledge. Wisdom is organized life”: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/i/immanuel_kant_2.html.
4 “The saddest aspect of society right now”: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/topics/topic_science4.html.
5 “Democracy is the worst form of government”: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/democracy.html.
6 “Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed”: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/g/george_bernard_shaw_2.htm.
7 “History is more or less bunk”: quoted in Rhodes, p. 61.
9. A DAY IN THE LIFE IN 2100
1 “The Roots of Violence”: http://thinkexist.com/quotation/the_roots_of_violence-wealth_without_work/191301.html.
Archer, David. The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009.
Bezold, Clement, ed. 2020 Visions: Health Care Information Standards and Technologies. Rockville, MD: United States Pharmacopeial Convention, 1993.
Brockman, Max, ed. What’s Next? Dispatches on the Future of Science. New York: Vintage, 2009.
Broderick, Damien. The Spike: How Our Lives Are Being Transformed by Rapidly Advancing Technologies. New York: Forge, 2001.
Broderick, Damien, ed. Year Million: Science at the Far Edge of Knowledge. New York: Atlas, 2008,
Brooks, Rodney A. Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Us. New York: Vintage, 2003.
Brown, Lester. Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization. New York: Norton, 2009.
Canton, James. The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World for the Next 5, 10, and 20 Years. New York: Dutton, 2006.
Coates, Joseph F., John B. Mahaffie, and Andy Hines. 2025: Scenarios of U.S. and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology. Greensboro, NC: Oakhill Press, 1997.
Cornish, Edward, ed. Futuring: The Exploration of the Future. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society, 2004.
Crevier, Daniel. AI: The Tumultuous History of the Search for Artificial Intelligence. New York: Basic Books, 1993.
Davies, Paul. The Eerie Silence: Renewing Our Search for Alien Intelligence. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2010.
Denning, Peter J., ed. The Invisible Future: The Seamless Integration of Technology into Everyday Life. New York: McGraw Hill, 2002.
Denning, Peter J., and Robert M. Metcalfe. Beyond Calculation: The Next Fifty Years of Computing. New York: Copernicus, 1997.
Dertouzos, Michael. What Will Be: How the New World of Information Will Change Our Lives. New York: HarperCollins, 1997.
Didsbury, Howard F., Jr., ed. Frontiers of the 21st Century: Prelude to the New Millennium. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society, 1999.
———. 21st Century Opportunities and Challenges: An Age of Destruction or an Age of Transformation. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society, 2003.
Dyson, Freeman J. The Sun, the Genome, and the Internet: Tools of Scientific Revolutions. New York: Oxford University Press, 1999.
Foundation for the Future. Future of Planet Earth: Seminar Proceedings. Bellevue, WA: Foundation for the Future, 2009; www.futurefoundation.org/publications/index.htm.
———. The Next Thousand Years. Bellevue, WA: Foundation for the Future, 2004.
Friedman, George. The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. New York: Doubleday, 2009.
Hanson, William. The Edge of Medicine: The Technology That Will Change Our Lives. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.
Kaku, Michio. Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century. New York: Anchor, 1998.
Kurzweil, Ray. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Viking, 2005.
McElheny, Victor K. Drawing the Map of Life: Inside the Human Genome Project. New York: Basic Books, 2010.
McRae, Hamish. The World in 2020: Power, Culture, and Prosperity. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School, 1995.
Mulhall, Douglas. Our Molecular Future: How Nanotechnology, Robotics, Genetics, and Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Our World. Amherst, NY: Prometheus, 2002.
Petersen, John L. The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future. Corte Madera, CA: Waite Group, 1994.
Pickover, Clifford A., ed. Visions of the Future: Art, Technology and Computing in the Twenty-first Century. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1994.
Rhodes, Richard, ed. Visions of Technology: A Century of Vital Debate About Machines, Systems, and the Human World. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1999.
Ridley, Matt. The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves. New York: HarperCollins, 2010.
Rose, Steven. The Future of the Brain: The Promise and Perils of Tomorrow’s Neuroscience. New York: Oxford University Press, 2005.
Seife, Charles. Sun in a Bottle: The Strange History of Fusion and the Science of Wishful Thinking. New York: Viking Penguin, 2008.
Sheffield, Charles, Marcelo Alonso, and Morton A. Kaplan, eds. The World of 2044: Technological Development and the Future of Society. St. Paul, MN: Paragon House, 1994.
Stock, Gregory. Redesigning Humans: Choosing Our Genes, Changing Our Future. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2003.
Thurow, Lester C. The Future of Capitalism: How Today’s Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow’s World. New York: William Morrow, 1996.
Toffler, Alvin, and Heidi Toffler. Revolutionary Wealth. New York: Knopf, 2006.
van der Duin, Patrick. Knowing Tomorrow? How Science Deals with the Future. Delft, Netherlands: Eburon, 2007.
Vinge, Vernor. Rainbows End. New York: Tor, 2006.
Watson, Richard. Future Files: The 5 Trends That Will Shape the Next 50 Years. London: Nicholas Brealey, 2008.
Weiner, Jonathan. Long for This World: The Strange Science of Immortality. New York: HarperCollins, 2010.
Abacus, atomic version of
Abortion
Abrahams, Paul
Acting profession
Adenosine triphosphate (ATP)
Advanced Automation for Space Missions report
Advertising
Aging. See Longevity
AIBO robot
Air bags
Aldrin, Buzz, 6.1, 6.2
Algae blooms
Alien civilizations
Allen, Paul, 6.1, 8.1
Andrews, Dana
Angels and Demons (Brown)
Animations, computer
Anthrax
Antimatter, itr.1, 6.1
Apophis (asteroid)
Armstrong, Neil
Artificial intelligence (AI). See Robotics/AI
Artificial vision
Artsutanov, Yuri
ASIMO robot, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3
Asimov, Isaac, 2.1, 6.1, 8.1
ASPM gene
Asteroid landing
Atala, Anthony
Atomic force microscope
Augmented reality
Augustine Commission report, 6.1, 6.2
Avatar (movie), 1.1, 2.1, 6.1, 7.1
Avatars
Backscatter X-rays
Back to the Future movies, 5.1, 5.2
Badylak, Stephen
Baldwin, David E.
Baltimore, David, 1.1, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3
Benford, Gregory
Big bang research
Binnig, Gerd
Bioinformatics
Biotechnology. See Medicine/biotechnology
Birbaumer, Niels
Birth control
Bismarck, Otto von
Blade Runner (movie)
Blue Gene computer
Blümich, Bernhard, 1.1, 1.2
Boeing Corporation
Booster-rocket technologies
Bova, Ben, 5.1, 5.2
Boys from Brazil, The (movie)
Brain
artificial body parts, adaptation to
basic structure of
emotions and
growing a human brain
Internet contact lenses and
locating every neuron in
as neural network
parallel processing in
reverse engineering of
simulations of
“Brain drain” to the United States
BrainGate device
Brain injuries, treatment for
Branson, Richard
Brave New World (Huxley)
Breast cancer
Breazeal, Cynthia
Brenner, Sydney
Brooks, Rodney, 2.1, 2.2, 4.1
Brown, Dan
Brown, Lester
Buckley, William F.
Bush, George W.
Bussard, Robert W., 6.1, 6.2
Caloric restriction
Cameron, James
Campbell, E. Michael
Campbell, Jason
Cancer, 3.1, 3.2
Cancer Genome Project
Cancer screening
Cancer therapies, 1.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 9.1
Canton, James
Capitalism, 4.1. See also Intellectual capitalism
Carbon nanotubes, 4.1, 6.1
Carbon sequestration
Cars
driverless
electric
maglev, 5.1, 9.1
Cascio, Jamais
Catoms
Cave Man Principle
biotechnology and
computer animations and
predicting the future and
replicators and, 4.1, 4.2
robotics/AI and, 2.1, 2.2
sports and
Cerf, Vint, 4.1, 6.1
Chalmers, David
Charles, Prince of Wales
Chemotherapy
Chernobyl nuclear accident
Chevy Volt
Chinese Empire, 7.1, 7.2
Church, George
Churchill, Winston, itr.1, 8.1
Cipriani, Christian
Civilizations
alien civilizations
characteristics of various Types
entropy and
information proc
essing and
resistance to Type I civilization
rise and fall of great empires
rise of civilization on Earth
science and wisdom, importance of
transition from Type 0 to Type I, itr.1, 8.1, 8.2
Type II civilizations, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3
Type III civilizations, 8.1, 8.2
waste heat and
Clarke, Arthur C.
Clausewitz, Carl von
Cloning, 3.1, 3.2
Cloud computing, 1.1, 7.1
Cochlear implants
Code breaking
Collins, Francis
Comets
Common sense, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 7.1, 7.2
Computers
animations created by
augmented reality
bioinformatics
brain simulations
carbon nanotubes and
cloud computing, 1.1, 7.1
digital divide
DNA computers
driverless cars
exponential growth of computer power (Moore’s law), 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 4.1
fairy tale life and
far future (2070)
four stages of technology and
Internet glasses and contact lenses, 1.1, 1.2
medicine and
midcentury (2030)
mind control of
molecular and atomic transistors
nanotechnology and
near future (present to 2030)
optical computers
parallel processing
physics of computer revolution
quantum computers
quantum dot computers
quantum theory and, 1.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3
scrap computers
self-assembly and
silicon chips, limitations of, 1.1, 1.2, 4.1